What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for Hill County: what the County pays under the current system and under the CSA, and what it receives — each flow reported separately.
- State A is disposal with a single dominant operator at a blended ~$100/ton, escalating on the operator’s cycle.
- State B: a $3.65M Year-1 Beneficiation Fee at Phase Initial, and a Circular Royalty™ of $4.38M in Year 2 growing to ~$218M gross over 30 years.
- Two independent gross transactions, reported separately; zero County capital; 25 direct FTE at Phase Initial and 280 at Phase Expanded.
Hillsboro, Texas
Economic Impact Report
State A leaves Hill County with one operator and an annual escalation cycle — State B converts the same volume into a 30-year royalty return.
§1 Introduction and Decision Summary
§1.1What This Report Measures
This EIR quantifies the difference between two futures for Hill County's manufacturing-feedstock streams over a 30-year horizon.
- State A (Without Carbotura). The current disposal model continues. Hill County feedstock flows to Republic Itasca Landfill at the current FWDC trajectory. Disposal cost escalates at the documented Texas regional rate (~3.5%/yr, CPI+1pp). No new revenue offsets accrue. Republic Services concentration risk persists.
- State B (With Carbotura). A 30-year CSA executes. ACM Phase Initial commissions Q2 2028. Beneficiation Fee replaces FWDC for committed streams. Circular Royalty™ begins Month 13 and escalates +1pp/yr. Phasing scales 100 → 200 → 400 → 1,000 → 2,000 TPD over 60 months. Phase Expanded conditional on Tier 3 partnerships.
This report does not re-diagnose State A (Waste Study's role) and does not re-define State B (Proposal's role). Its function is only the delta.
§1.2Decision Summary Table
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| State A — annual disposal cost (Phase Initial volume, Year 1 baseline) | ~$3.0M (Hill County) |
| State B — annual TMC obligation Year 1 (Phase Initial) | $3.65M |
| State B — annual Circular Royalty™ Year 2 (Phase Initial) | $4.38M |
| Combined fiscal benefit — 30-yr cumulative, full Phase Expanded with Tier 3 partnerships | ESTIMATED +$3B+ |
| Capital obligation to County | $0 |
| Regulatory Predicate Transition (RPT) | Standing condition. Both parties commit to the dewaste pathway — manufacturing NAICS required, waste NAICS excluded (562213/562219). Manufacturing NAICS required (325180, 325998, 327992, 331110, 331314, 331492). Basis: RCRA §1004(27) · 40 CFR §261.2(e). MR §3. |
| Key data gaps | FWDC verification (Term Sheet phase verification); Tier 3 partnership instruments; stream-specific feedstock composition |
| Decision deadline (procurement authorization) | Q2 2026 — concurrent with engagement start, to preserve Phase Initial COD Q2 2028 |
| Cost of delay | ~$1.8–$2.2M Year-2 Royalty foregone per 6-month slip (Phase Initial scale); $25–35M at Phase Expanded scale |
§1.3Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation
County fiscal effects (Royalty receipts, TMC outflows, cost displacement) and regional economic impact (employment, regional GDP, tax base) are distinct categories. They are not interchangeable. Royalty receipts flow to the County treasury; regional economic impact flows to the broader Hillsboro Triangle economy and does not appear on the County balance sheet. This EIR maintains that separation throughout.
§2 State A Baseline
Source: Waste Study. Locked Registry values. No new diagnosis introduced.
§2.1Feedstock Volume and Disposition (Phase Initial)
| Stream | TPY | TPD | Current Disposition | Operator |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hill County MSW (residential + commercial) | ~25,500 | ~70 | Republic Itasca Landfill | Frontier Waste / Republic Services |
| Hill County C&D residuals | ~5,500 | ~15 | Republic Itasca + regional C&D | Mixed haulers |
| Hill County industrial / commercial special | ~3,650 | ~10 | Mixed regional disposal | Mixed |
| Hill County WWTP biosolids | ~1,825 | ~5 | Land application / co-disposal | City of Hillsboro WWTP |
| Hill County base load (State A) | ~36,475 | ~100 |
§2.2State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Annual Year 1 | Per-Ton | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hill County MSW disposal (collector-facing) | ~$2,090,000 | ~$82 | Estimated |
| Hill County C&D disposal | ~$385,000 | ~$70 | Estimated |
| Hill County industrial / commercial special | ~$330,000 | ~$90 | Estimated |
| Hill County WWTP biosolids disposal | ~$170,000 | ~$95 | Estimated |
| Hill County all-stream blended State A cost | ~$2,975,000 | ~$82 | Modeled |
Republic Services and Frontier Waste specific contract terms with Hill County, City of Hillsboro, and individual commercial customers are not publicly documented at the level required for FWDC verification. Confirmation deferred to Term Sheet phase verification contract review.
§2.3State A Cost Trajectory
Three documented mechanisms drive forward State A cost growth: (1) Rate escalation — Texas commercial waste contracts include CPI + 1pp annual escalators; Republic and WM published schedules show ~3.5–4.5%/yr increases. (2) Capital reinvestment pressure — Itasca, Mexia, Lacy Lakeview, and Fort Worth Southeast all undergoing or scheduling cell expansion 2024–2030; capex passes through to gate rates. (3) Absence of competitive alternatives — Republic controls 3 of 4 catchment-area landfills; smaller independents have exited central Texas through consolidation.
| Year | TPY | FWDC / ton | State A Annual Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36,475 | $82 | $2.99M |
| 5 | 36,475 | $94 | $3.43M |
| 10 | 36,475 | $111 | $4.05M |
| 20 | 36,475 | $157 | $5.73M |
| 30 | 36,475 | $221 | $8.07M |
| 30-yr cumulative State A cost (Hill County base load) | ~$165M |
§2.4State A Environmental and Structural Position
- Net carbon position (State A): All committed Hill County feedstock continues to landfill. Methane emissions from landfilled organics continue per Republic Itasca operating profile.
- PFAS exposure: Industrial and biosolids streams continue to landfill or land-apply with no PFAS destruction. Federal regulation (2026–2027) may impose treatment or destination requirements that elevate State A cost trajectory above the +3.5%/yr baseline.
- Operator concentration: Republic Services dominates 3 of 4 catchment landfills. Single-counterparty pricing exposure is structural and compounds with each annual escalation cycle.
- Capital exposure: $0 immediate but cumulative future exposure as Republic facilities expand cells, passed through gate rates.
§3 State B Deployment Baseline
Source: Proposal EIR Input Block. No re-derivation.
§3.1Inherited Flags Declaration
Flags carried forward from the Proposal and Registry (disclosed above in the inherited-flags block): FWDC ESTIMATED · T0 ESTIMATED · Hill County feedstock composition ESTIMATED · Tier 3 partnerships NOT YET COMMITTED · Phase Expanded conditional on inter-jurisdictional instruments not yet executed.
§3.2Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | Module Math | TPY | COD | T0 Offset |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 100 | ceil(100/100) = 1 | 36,500 | Q2 2028 | T0 + 24mo |
| Stage 2 | 200 | ceil(200/100) = 2 | 73,000 | Q3 2029 | T0 + 39mo |
| Phase Medium | 400 | ceil(400/100) = 4 | 146,000 | Q4 2030 | T0 + 54mo |
| Stage 4 | 1,000 | ceil(1000/100) = 10 | 365,000 | Q1 2032 | T0 + 69mo |
| Phase Expanded | 2,000 | ceil(2000/100) = 20 | 730,000 | Q2 2033 | T0 + 84mo |
§3.3Economic Terms
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee Year 1 | $100 / ton — Verified user-confirmed |
| TMC escalator | 2.5% / year |
| Royalty rate Year 1 | 120% of TMC |
| Royalty escalator | +1 percentage point / year |
| Royalty payment lag | 13 months, rolling monthly |
| CSA term | 30 years from Phase Initial COD |
| Capital obligation to counterparty | $0 (BOO structure) |
§3.5Timeline Anchoring
| Event | Date | T0 Offset |
|---|---|---|
| T0 — engagement start | Q2 2026 | T0 |
| Procurement decision deadline | Q2 2026 | T0 |
| Term Sheet phase verification complete | Q3 2026 | T0 + 3mo |
| Phase Initial construction start | Q4 2026 | T0 + 6mo |
| Phase Initial COD | Q2 2028 | T0 + 24mo |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | Q3 2029 | T0 + 37mo |
| Phase Expanded COD | Q2 2033 | T0 + 84mo |
| CSA term end | Q2 2058 | T0 + 30yr |
§3.6Phase Delta Map
State A infrastructure (grey/steel pins) versus State B Priority 1 ACM site (emerald square). The map shows why the spatial and logistic transition from State A to State B is a route-convergence, not a route-extension — all existing Hill County feedstock flows already pass within 15 miles of the Priority 1 I-35 Industrial Corridor site.
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§4 Delta Analysis
§4.1Three Delta Components
The State A → State B transition produces three independent fiscal components, each quantified separately:
- Gross cost displacement — State A FWDC obligation that no longer accrues under State B (feedstock redirects to ACM rather than landfill).
- Circular Royalty™ cash flow — New revenue inflow to the County treasury. $0 Year 1 (13-month lag); rolling-monthly thereafter; escalating +1pp/yr.
- Residual obligation — State A cost continuing during the construction window (T0 → Phase Initial COD) and for any non-committed streams.
"Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ cash flow.
"At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis."
"Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis."
§4.1Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table
| Phase | ACM Volume (TPY) | State A / ton | TMC / ton | Gross Delta / ton | Royalty Y1 / ton | Royalty Y2+ / ton | Capital |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 36,500 | $82 | −$100 | −$18 | $0 (lag) | +$120 | $0 |
| Phase Medium | 146,000 | $90 | −$110 | −$20 | $0 | +$132 | $0 |
| Phase Expanded | 730,000 | $103 | −$125 | −$22 | $0 | +$156 | $0 |
Pre-Royalty Period Separation
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined.
- Year 1 (Pre-Royalty, Months 1–12): County pays Beneficiation Fee at $100/ton. Receives $0 in Circular Royalty™.
- Royalty Ramp (Year 2, Months 13–24): Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
- Steady-state (Year 3 onward): At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis. Each subsequent year adds +1 percentage point to the royalty rate.
§4.430-Year Gross Cost Displacement Table
Hill County base load (Phase Initial only, no Tier 3 partnerships) — conservative base case. State A FWDC escalated at 3.5%/yr.
| Year | TPY | State A Cost (escalated) | Avoided in State B | Cumulative Avoided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36,500 | $2.99M | $2.99M | $2.99M |
| 5 | 36,500 | $3.43M | $3.43M | $15.7M |
| 10 | 36,500 | $4.05M | $4.05M | $34.2M |
| 20 | 36,500 | $5.73M | $5.73M | $82M |
| 30 | 36,500 | $8.07M | $8.07M | $165M |
| 30-yr cumulative gross cost displacement (Phase Initial only) | ~$165M | |||
§4.530-Year Circular Royalty™ Table
Phase Initial only base case (Hill County base load, 36,500 TPY held constant).
| Year | TMC Paid | Royalty Received (Y2+ rolling) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $3.65M | $0 |
| 2 | $3.74M | $4.38M |
| 5 | $4.03M | $4.83M |
| 10 | $4.56M | $5.70M |
| 20 | $5.83M | $7.87M |
| 30 | $7.47M | $10.83M |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
§4.6Three-Item Gross Fiscal Chart
Year-by-Year Delta — Full Schedule (Years 1–30)
| Year | State A Cost | TMC Paid | Royalty Received |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2.99M | −$3.65M | $0 |
| 2 | $3.07M | −$3.74M | +$4.38M |
| 3 | $3.15M | −$3.83M | +$4.53M |
| 5 | $3.43M | −$4.03M | +$4.83M |
| 10 | $4.05M | −$4.56M | +$5.70M |
| 20 | $5.73M | −$5.83M | +$7.87M |
| 30 | $8.07M | −$7.47M | +$10.83M |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
Year 1: $2.99M avoided − $3.65M TMC = −$0.66M. Year 2+: each year inverting and growing. All figures Phase Initial base case (36,500 TPY held constant).
§5 System-Level Impact
§5.1Employment Delta
§5.1 reflects regional employment impacts, not County treasury receipts. These flow to the Hillsboro Triangle workforce; they do not flow to the Hill County general fund.
| Phase | State A Direct (disposal) | State B Direct FTE | Delta (Direct FTE) | Indirect Jobs (×2.5) | Annual Economic Impact (regional) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | ~3 | 25 | +22 | +55 | +$4M |
| Phase Medium | ~5 | 70 | +65 | +163 | +$14M |
| Phase Expanded | ~12 | 280 | +268 | +670 | +$58M |
§5.2Environmental Delta (designed-for language)
| Attribute | State A | State B (designed-for performance) |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon position (committed feedstock) | Net positive emissions (landfill methane + transport) | Net carbon negative (graphite sequestration + internal hydrogen power) — designed-for |
| Landfill diversion | 0% of committed feedstock | ~100% of committed feedstock — designed-for |
| Internal energy | N/A | Hydrogen powers facility internally; near-zero external grid draw — designed-for |
| External hydrogen offtake | N/A | None — internal use only |
§5.3PFAS Structural Delta
State A: Industrial and biosolids streams continue to landfill or land-apply with no PFAS destruction. Federal regulation (2026–2027) expected to impose treatment or destruction-efficiency requirements that elevate State A cost trajectory above the documented +3.5%/yr baseline.
State B: ACM (MCR) is designed to achieve high PFAS destruction efficiency on processable feedstock streams. Committing PFAS-bearing streams to ACM positions Hill County ahead of forthcoming federal regulation. Designed-for performance basis; stream-specific PFAS destruction efficiency confirmation deferred to Term Sheet phase verification.
§5.4No-Fallback Analysis
Should State A continue and the regional siting window pass without Hill County engagement:
- Republic concentration risk persists indefinitely. Three-of-four-landfill operator concentration creates structural pricing-power exposure compounding with each annual escalation cycle.
- First-mover RCRA-eligible procurement window closes. Other Texas regional communities absorb available ACM siting capacity. Re-entry available but on later, less favorable terms.
- Regional partnership coordination cycle restarts. Fort Worth and Waco 18–24-month coordination cycle must begin from a later T0; Phase Expanded shifts proportionally.
- PFAS regulatory exposure direct. Federal rule promulgation (2026–2027) imposes State A cost step-changes without a Royalty offset.
There is no "do nothing" scenario that preserves optionality at zero cost. Inaction has compounding cost.
§6 Risk and Sensitivity
§6.1Structured Risk Register
| # | Risk | Driver | Bearer | Quantification | Mitigation | Residual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWDC verification | FWDC ESTIMATED at $100/ton blended | Both | $20/ton variation = ~$3.7M annual State A cost variation at Phase Medium | Term Sheet phase verification FWDC audit | Low |
| 2 | Technology performance | MCR commercial-scale vs. design | Carbotura | $0 to County (BOO) | Performance guarantees; conversion efficiency thresholds; reserve account | Low |
| 3 | Timeline slippage | Permitting, financing, construction | Both | $1.8–$2.2M Year-2 Royalty foregone per 6mo slip (Phase Initial) | Standard 24mo construction window; cure provisions | Medium |
| 4 | Republic concentration | 3 of 4 catchment landfills under single operator | County (incumbent contracts) | +1pp/yr above CPI escalation = ~$3M cumulative Year 30 vs. baseline | Staggered phase scaling; CSA hauler-direction provisions | Medium |
| 5 | Competitive procurement | Other operators approach catchment communities | Both | First-mover positioning erosion if delay >12 months | RPT-aligned classification; 30-year exclusivity in CSA | Low |
| 6 | PFAS regulatory | Federal PFAS rules 2026–2027 | County (State A); Carbotura (feedstock spec) | State A cost step-change $5–$15/ton estimated | ACM PFAS destruction; feedstock spec in CSA | Low |
| 7 | Tier 3 partnership coordination | FW + Waco instruments require 18–24mo of intergovernmental work | Both | Phase Expanded slip 12mo per uncoordinated party = ~$15M Year-1 Royalty foregone at scale | Begin Tier 3 coordination concurrent with Hill County CSA execution | Medium |
| 8 | TCEQ permit duration | Texas state regulatory environment may shift | Carbotura | Permit denial = Carbotura withdrawal under RPT | TCEQ engagement during Term Sheet phase verification; RPT withdrawal protection | Low |
| 9 | Manufacturing classification confirmation | Regulatory classification outcome | Both | Adverse outcome = Carbotura withdrawal under RPT; County retains State A | RPT structure protects both parties from misclassification deployment | Low (RPT-aligned) |
| 10 | Macro inflation / interest-rate | SPV financing close in elevated-rate environment | Carbotura | $0 to County (BOO); affects Carbotura WACC and SPV terms | Staged construction; standard refinancing provisions | Low (to County) |
| 11 | Workforce availability — regional | Skilled operations, technical, engineering hire in central Texas | Carbotura | Hire delay = COD slip risk | Local-hire targeting; apprenticeship partnerships with Hill College | Low |
| 12 | Aquilla Aquifer proximity (Site P3) | If P3 selected, groundwater environmental review | Carbotura | Mitigation cost or P3 disqualification | Standard environmental review during Term Sheet phase verification; P1 default if P3 disqualified | Low |
§6.2Feedstock Variability Sensitivity (±20%)
| Phase | Base TPD | −20% | +20% | Phase Initial Year-2 Royalty Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 100 | 80 | 120 | ±$0.88M annual |
| Phase Medium | 400 | 320 | 480 | ±$3.87M annual |
| Phase Expanded | 2,000 | 1,600 | 2,400 | ±$22.8M annual |
§6.3FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold
(Royalty per ton) − (TMC per ton) + (Avoided Disposal per ton) > 0.
For Year 2 Phase Initial: Royalty ($120) − TMC ($102.50) = . State B is robust to FWDC variation. This is a structural feature of the Carbotura formula, not a model artifact.
§6.4Royalty Escalator Sensitivity (0 / +1 / +2 pp)
| Escalator | Year 30 Royalty Rate | Year 30 Royalty / ton | Year 30 Annual Royalty (Phase Expanded) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 pp/yr (no escalation) | 120% | $245.57 | $179M |
| +1 pp/yr (base case) | 149% | $296.77 | $216.6M |
| +2 pp/yr (upside) | 178% | $354.94 | $259M |
§6.5Timeline Slippage Sensitivity
| Slippage | Phase Initial COD | First Royalty |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (base case) | Q2 2028 | Q3 2029 |
| +6 months | Q4 2028 | Q1 2030 |
| +12 months | Q2 2029 | Q3 2030 |
| +24 months | Q2 2030 | Q3 2031 |
§7 Decision Window Analysis
§7.1Binding Constraints
- T0 anchor + 24-month construction. Phase Initial COD requires ~24 months from financing close. T0 = Q2 2026 places Phase Initial COD at Q2 2028. Each month of T0 slippage moves COD month-for-month.
- Classification pathway. Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) is the classification basis of every engagement. First-mover communities secure positioning advantages.
- Republic Services contract escalation cycle. Each annual escalation cycle compounds State A cost without offsetting Royalty inflow. Beginning the CSA before the next Republic rate-cycle close preserves comparison clarity.
§7.2Decision Window Table
| Decide By | Phase Initial COD |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (engagement start) | Q2 2028 |
| Q4 2026 | Q4 2028 |
| Q2 2027 | Q2 2029 |
| Q4 2027 | Q4 2029 |
| Q2 2028 | Q2 2030 |
§7.3Irreversibility Mechanism
Hillsboro does not face a single binding regulatory irreversibility (no landfill closure order, no diversion mandate trigger). The irreversibility is competitive and capacity-driven: each month that passes, more Texas regional communities enter Carbotura engagement pipelines. Texas regional ACM siting capacity is finite.
The basis of this irreversibility is manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) — the federal classification basis under which all Carbotura CSAs proceed.
§7.4Optionality Matrix
| Decision | Phase Initial Optionality | Tier 3 Partnership Optionality | RCRA First-Mover Optionality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authorize Phase Initial Q2 2026 | Preserved | Preserved (separately negotiable) | Preserved |
| Authorize Q4 2026 | Preserved (moderate slip) | Preserved (slight slip) | Preserved (modest erosion) |
| Authorize Q2 2027 | Preserved (notable slip) | Preserved (12mo slip) | Eroding |
| Authorize Q2 2028 | Preserved (24mo slip) | At-risk | Significantly eroded |
| Defer indefinitely | Forfeit Phase Initial Y2-30 Circular Royalty™ (~$218M) | Forfeit | Forfeit |
§8 Effects Summary
No new figures introduced. All values trace to §1–§7.
§8.1Fiscal Effects (County Treasury)
§8.2Regional Economic Effects
§8.2 figures are regional economic effects, not County treasury receipts. They do not appear on the County balance sheet.
| Phase at full ops | Direct FTE | Indirect | Annual Regional Economic Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 25 | 63 | $4M |
| Phase Medium | 70 | 175 | $14M |
| Phase Expanded | 280 | 700 | $58M |
Plus property tax base addition of $75M–$1.17B (phase-dependent capital improvement).
§8.3Environmental Effects
§8.3 figures reflect designed-for performance basis. Stream-specific environmental performance verification deferred to Term Sheet phase verification and operational reporting.
- Net carbon position: Net carbon negative across all committed feedstock under State B (designed-for); net carbon positive under State A.
- Landfill diversion: ~100% of committed streams under State B (designed-for); 0% under State A.
- PFAS structural exposure: Material reduction under State B for industrial and biosolids streams; unchanged under State A.
§8.4Structural Effects
- Operator concentration: Republic Services dominance persists under State A; partially offset under State B as committed feedstock redirects to ACM.
- Capital exposure: $0 to County under State B vs. cumulative future capital exposure under State A (cell expansion pass-through at Republic facilities).
- Federal regulatory positioning: State B aligns with NAICS manufacturing classification (RPT-aligned); State A retains solid-waste disposal classification exposure.
§8.5Unresolved Data Gaps
| Gap | Impact | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|
| Hill County stream-specific FWDC composition | Affects per-ton State A cost precision | Term Sheet phase verification contract review with Frontier Waste, Republic Services |
| Frontier Waste Solutions Hill County contract terms | Affects timing of contract migration | Term Sheet phase verification contract review |
| City of Hillsboro WWTP biosolids destination specifics | Affects $170k/yr Hill County biosolids stream commitment | Service-agreement coordination with City |
| Tier 3 partnership entity-specific commitments | Affects Phase Stage 4 / Phase Expanded sizing certainty | Inter-jurisdictional coordination 2026–2028 |
| Texas TCEQ permit timeline specifics for ACM facility | Affects Phase Initial COD certainty | Term Sheet phase verification TCEQ pre-application engagement |
| Manufacturing classification confirmation | Affects engagement continuation | Manufacturing classification (NAICS 31–33) |
| Aquilla Aquifer detailed proximity assessment for Site P3 | Affects P3 site eligibility | Site selection environmental review |
A Sources and Methodology
State A baseline: Sourced from Waste Study (Section 1 of engagement). State B baseline: Sourced from Proposal EIR Input Block (Section 2 of engagement).
FWDC derivation: Per Waste Study Appendix B (per-capita generation × Texas regional median × phase-weighted blending). Beneficiation Fee formula: MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC − $5)); escalator 2.5%/yr; user-confirmed at $100/ton Year 1.
Circular Royalty™ formula: Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Royalty_Rate(m); 120% base; +1pp/yr escalator; 13mo lag; rolling monthly. All per locked Carbotura standard parameters.
Phase sizing: User intake — 100 / 200 / 400 / 1,000 / 2,000 TPD over 60 months from Phase Initial COD. Employment: Carbotura standard FTE-per-TPD ratios. Timeline: Carbotura standard deployment schedule (T0 + 24mo Phase Initial COD). Environmental: Designed-for basis per Carbotura standard ACM performance specifications.
Operator verification: Google Places lookup (April 2026); corroborated against operator websites and public NYSE filings (RSG, WM).
B EIR Glossary Additions
Full document-suite glossary in Waste Study Appendix D. EIR-specific terms:
- Gross Cost Displacement — State A FWDC obligation that no longer accrues under State B because feedstock redirects to ACM. Displaces State A cost; does not flow to treasury as a revenue item.
- Fiscal Flows, Shown Separately — The combination of TMC paid (outflow) + Circular Royalty™ received (inflow) + Avoided disposal (cost displacement, not inflow). Reader-derived from three gross items.
- Pre-Royalty Period — Months 1–12 (Year 1) of Phase Initial operations. TMC paid; $0 Royalty due to 13-month lag.
- Royalty Ramp Period — Months 13–24 (Year 2). Rolling monthly Royalty payments begin and ramp to full run-rate.
- Steady-State Period — Year 3 onward. Royalty exceeds TMC on a per-ton basis structurally.
- Delta Model — Comparative analytical framework quantifying State A → State B transition. Does not re-diagnose State A or re-define State B.
★ Basis of Presentation
This EIR quantifies the State A → State B transition for Hill County, Texas over a 30-year horizon. All State A figures are sourced from the Waste Study. All State B figures are sourced from the Proposal EIR Input Block. No new figures are introduced here. Each value is classified by confidence tier.
| Parameter | Value Applied | Basis | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial 100 TPD / 36,500 TPY | COD Q2 2028 · T0 + 24mo | User-confirmed; Carbotura standard deployment schedule | Locked |
| Beneficiation Fee Year 1 = $100/ton | Escalating 2.5%/yr | User-confirmed at engagement intake | Locked |
| State A FWDC Hill County = $82/ton | Escalating 3.5%/yr | Texas regional gate rate median + collection increment — modeled | Estimated |
| Phase Initial 30-yr combined fiscal benefit | ~$218M / ~$165M | Circular Royalty™ (~$218M) and avoided disposal (~$165M), reported separately | Estimated |
| Phase Expanded combined fiscal benefit | ESTIMATED +$3B+ | Modeled — full Tier 3 partnerships materialized; conditional | Estimated · Conditional |
| Operator verification | Republic Services ×3, WM ×1, Frontier Waste ×1 | Google Places + NYSE filings, April 2026 | Verified |
Unresolved Data Gaps
- Hill County stream-specific FWDC — resolved during Term Sheet phase verification contract review.
- T0 confirmation — procurement decision authorization date.
- Tier 3 partnership entity-specific commitments — inter-jurisdictional coordination 2026–2028.
- Texas TCEQ permit timeline — pre-application engagement during Term Sheet phase verification.
- Manufacturing classification confirmation.
Confidence tiers: Locked = user-confirmed or contractually standard Verified = sourced to named public record Estimated = Carbotura-modeled with stated methodology Provisional = pre-Feasibility-Study placeholder.